Thursday, January 29, 2009

Superbowl XLIII Picks!

Well, the Superbowl is just 3 days from now, and here are Raymond and I's picks for the big game.

Straight Up:
Jared: Pittsburgh
Raymond: Pittsburgh

Against the Spread:
Jared: Arizona +7
Raymond: Pittsburgh -7

Point Total:
Jared: Over 47
Raymond: Under 47

As mentioned on the show, I am a huge fan of prop bets, and here are a few that I like for this Sunday.

Will either team score three unanswered times in the game?
Yes (3 Unanswered Scores) -190
No (3 Unanswered Scores) +155

I really like the "No" option in this one, especially at +155. I just can't see either team scoring 3 unanswered times in this game. Arizona's offense is too good to have three straight possessions in this game without scoring, and even if they did, I don't think Pittsburgh could score on 3 straight possesions. The play on this bet for me is really all about finding bets that you feel are wrong, and this is one of them. I would have expected to see the "No" option at -190, and the "Yes" option at +155, so I think this is a bet that is backwards and I really like my chances on this one, and the +155 is a nice money line bet, so I will definately take the "No" option on this one.

A bet that I might make a small play on would be the alternate total points scored:
Over 54 1/2 +200
Under 54 1/2 -260

or

Over 57 1/2 +275
Under 57 1/2 - 350

I think this is going to be a high scoring game, and wouldn't be surprised to see it be a 31 to 28 game, which is 59 points. I just think that these offenses are going to put up points despite what we have been hearing about their defenses. I could be completely wrong on this, but I like the high money lines of +200 and +275 on what I think is a realistic chance of being a high scoring game. I would not be surprised to see this game get over 57, and a small play on either of those overs could net some nice change.

Another prop bet that I like is:
The largest lead of the game by either team will be:
Over 14 1/2 -115
Under 14 1/2 -115

Even though I think this game will be high scoring I don't think either team will get a big lead on the other, I see it more back and forth. Plus, with it being at 14 1/2, that means one team has to get up 3 scores on the other, with at least 2 of those scores being touchdowns, and I don't see that happening. The odds at -115 aren't great, but they aren't terrible either, and I think it is another chance to make some change.

There are alot of other bets that I do like, but we went over those on the show, as well as some of the more amusing bets, such as how many times will John Madden mention a food item, over/under 1 1/2. So, if you want to check out the rest of them, head over to the iTunes music store and search podcasts for "What's Your Fantasy", download it and happy listening.

So there are some of my favorite prop bets and Raymond and I's picks for the big game. Feel free to post a comment leaving your picks for bragging rights later.

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